Although I was unable to see the broadcast this year, I saw enough clips, both online and off, to get a good idea that this year's Oscar ceremony was just a tad bit....weird.
From disorienting camera angles and inappropriate shots, to stars not quote prepared to take the podium, to the opening segment shadow puppet performance, nothing seemed to be quite settled at the Kodak Theater.
Ellen DeGeneres generally got good reviews as host. I dare say her usual simple disarming manner likely helped folks at home refocus when things went awry.
The major "upset" (as they say in sports) was Alan Arkin winning Best Suppoprting Actor for Little Miss Sunshine over the expected Eddie Murphy (for Dreamgirls). If I had to choose a second big surprise, I'd say it was Happy Feet winning over Cars as Best Animated Feature.
Of course the biggest news was the 5-times-nominated-but-never-won, odds-on sentimental favorite, Martin Scorsese, winning Best Director for his movie, The Departed, which also won Best Picture. It has been sugggested this was such a sure thing, the producers didn't risk much by having the powerhouse trio of Steven Spielberg, Francis Ford Coppola, and George Lucas there as presenters.
Well, that brings us to our annual Oscar-picks PCR shootout. Only Mike Smith and Matt Drinnenberg participated this time. I myself simply didn't see enough of the nominated movies to warrant voting and no one else sent in a ballot.
Mike and Matt are two powerful predicters and have scored high in the past, so they should've had no problems with this year's roster, right? WRONG! The plethora of really great movies bloated the barrel and made it much harder to predict. It just goes to show, even with the experts, the Academy Awards are sometimes not always obvious.
Following below are their predictions compared to the final results. Both lists were sent to me before airdate, only Mike's got to me in time to publish last week. Winners are in red. I'll be back at the end with an analysis.
| CATEGORIES, NOMINEES, and WINNERS | OUR PREDICTIONS |
BEST PICTURE
The Departed
Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen | Mike: "The Departed"
Matt: "Letters From Iwo Jima" |
BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Paul Greengrass (United 93) | Mike: Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Matt: Clint Eastwood, "Letters From Iwo Jima" |
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo Dicaprio (Blood Diamond)
Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland) | Mike: Forest Whitaker for "The Last King of Scotland"
Matt: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland" |
BEST ACTRESS
Peneleop Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children) | Mike: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Matt: Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada" |
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg (The Departed) | Mike: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Matt: Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed" |
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza (Babel)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Rinko Kikuchi (Babel) | Mike: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Matt: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls" |
| WINNERS IN OTHER CATEGORIES |
| Best Film Editing: The Departed | Mike: United 93, Matt: The Departed |
| Best Original Song: "I Need To Wake Up"--Melissa Ethridge; An Inconvenient Truth | Mike: "Listen" from Dreamgirls, Matt: "Patience" from Dreamgirls |
| Best Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine | Mike: Little Miss Sunshine, Matt: Letters From Iwo Jima |
| Best Original Score: Babel | Mike: The Queen, Matt: Babel |
| Best Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth | Mike: An Inconvenient Truth, Matt: An Inconvenient Truth |
| Best Documentary - Short Subject: The Blood of Yingzhou District | Mike: (No Vote), Matt: (No Vote) |
| Best Foreign Language Film: The Lives of Others (Germany) | Mike: Pan's Labyrinth, Matt: The Lives of Others |
| Best Visual Effects: Dead Man's Chest | Mike: Dead Man's Chest, Matt: Poseidon |
| Best Cinematography: Pan's Labyrinth | Mike: Children of Men, Matt: The Prestige |
| Best Costume Design: Marie Antoinette | Mike: Marie Antoinette, Matt: Dreamgirls |
| Best Adapted Screenplay: The Departed | Mike: The Departed, Matt: The Departed |
| Best Animated Feature Film: Happy Feet | Mike: Cars, Matt: Monster House |
| Best Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls | Mike: Apocalypto, Matt: Flags of our Fathers |
| Best Sound Editing: Letters From Iwo Jima | Mike: Flags Of Our Fathers, Matt: Flags Of Our Fathers |
| Best Live Action Short Film: West Bank Story | Mike: (No Vote), Matt: The Saviour |
| Best Animated Short Film: The Danish Poet | Mike: (No Vote), Matt: The Little Match Girl |
| Best Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth | Mike: Pan's Labyrinth, Matt: Apocalypto |
| Best Art Direction: Pan's Labyrinth | Mike: Dreamgirls, Matt: The Prestige |
Analysis
Out of the standard 24 possible categories listed for PCR, Mike scored 11, Matt scored 6. Considering both colleagues' amazing record in the past, these are astoundingly low numbers for either one, which shows how unpredictable the Oscars can be. Even if the category neither voted on was deleted (Best Short Documentary), the score wouldn't change significantly. In fact, where Matt voted and Mike didn't (Best Live Short and Best Animated Short) Matt missed them both anyway, so the score remains about the same (although I'd have to refigure percentages if he'd gotten one or both).
The surprising number of categories that were total wash-outs has been reflected elsewhere: Alan Arkin's surprise win for Best Supporting Actor being the most publicized example, and wound up also being Mike's only miss in the "Top 6" categories. The other categories that threw both boys for a loop were Best Original Song (Ethridge/Gore), Best Cinematography, Best Animated Feature (many are incredulous that "Happy Feet" won over "Cars"), Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing, and Best Art Direction. WHEW! (For this part of the commentary, I'm igorning categories where one or both boys didn't vote at all.)
One could also take meaning from this that there were so many really great films out last year, that choosing the best of anything was much more difficult. I suppose that's pretty good news!
Hear Mike Smith comment on the Oscars in the newest episode of Nolan Radio.
An Interview With Paul Guzzo
"Wilds Hogs"
Greetings and Salutations....The Rondos Are Here! The Rondos Are Here!...The Musicality Of It All
And The Oscar Goes To....And The Anti-Oscar Goes To....The Real Deal....Whatever Happened To...? Chapter 9: John Belushi